近期金融市场的一点想法,很初级、很浅显

在全球经济陷入金融风暴后,各国政府都纷纷出台了若干的拯救计划和措施,中国的这次四万亿政策相信中国老百姓多少都听说了,若干的利好消息,也使得中国的股市在最近一段时间一枝独秀的保持反弹上涨的曲线,炒股的朋友们近期相信心情也是不错的,到昨天周四为止,我的股票也终于解套,加上今天的行情,也算是小有收获!

相信此刻有很多从最近股市行情中赚到钱的朋友正在数钞票开心着,也有不少朋友应该在继续思考股市后续会如何发展,近一周我对大盘的判断基本都算正确,对于下周来说,周一站上2000点的可能性比较大,然后会有一波小幅震荡,冲击2200点将会是下周的目标,之后的上升压力将会非常大,暂时无法判断,我这样说估计带有一些片面的主观的色彩,大家不要完全接受,毕竟我不是专业的证券行业人士。


虽然有这样乐观的预计,但是留给我们很多人都该思考的问题是,难道我们的经济就这样顺利的复苏了吗? 很多人似乎还没有感受到金融风暴带来的影响,也就是有时听说身边一些朋友被公司裁了,我想有兴趣的朋友应该多思考一下类似的一些问题。

今天和王宇讨论股票的时候,提到一句话,我希望能把炒股当作一种乐趣来看待,把炒股当作提高自己金融意识的一种良好的手段,正是因为投资股票,我加强了对金融市场、世界经济、国家政策等方面的知识积累和关注,广泛的阅读资料和学习,最近大家都在关注的政府四万亿拯救经济计划,也成为重点关注的内容,从出台十项措施来说,的确可以说出手快、狠,但是似乎并没有给老百姓解答一个疑问,就是我们目前面临的经济危机到底是因为什么呢? 政府的这十项政策的目的到底是什么? 单纯来看,十项措施似乎是政府本来就该做的事情,跟拯救经济关系不大。

郎咸平教授之前提到政府应当拯救制造业的观点和有关信托责任的演讲,个人感觉很尖锐和清楚的指出了中国经济背后真正的问题,在他另外一篇文章里面提到中国楼市泡沫的根本原因是背后的腐败所致,我感觉也是一针溅血,这样具有鲁迅风格的学者今天这个时代不多见!

郎教授举了个芭比娃娃的例子,指出中国的制造业实际上不是中国的,而是欧洲和美国的廉价制造业,同时还要由中国来承担背后的环境破坏、资源浪费的恶果,很多人貌似对“made in china”自我感觉很良好,其实很可悲,中国的大量制造业都在为美国制造东西,其实大量的利润由美国人赚取了,这个例子太生动了!

从郎教授的文章和我们现实的情况中,我们不难发现,中国经济面临的一个大问题就是我们国内的消费能力太有限了,今天中午还在和史韦争论国内经济问题,从数据上来看,中国的GDP在不断高增长,但是支撑GDP的是国家基础建设这些大项目和行业,泱泱大国的消费能力仅占到GDP的35%,西方国家通常都是70%,这带来的问题是,国内制造业只能制造产品往外出口,内部无法消化掉,之前我也认为咱们大量的出口很光彩,现在明白了完全是无奈之举,政府强调GDP增长,还会导致一些地方腐败和不规范的政策和措施的执行。

国内的消费能力低还反映出另外一个问题,老百姓为什么不消费? 记得我之前看到一个报道里面说,中国人的习惯是存钱再消费,美国人是提前消费,为啥中国人就会存钱不消费呢? 简单来说,就是没有安全感,没有完备的社会保障体系,担心生病、没房住、养老、养孩子。。。

从这次政府出台的政策中,能看到好几项都是加强基础建设的,这些个人感觉在短时间内能给面临危机的重要经济支撑行业和企业带来若干机会,也给咱们股市带来了一个阶段性的机会,但是从长远来说,个人依然持不太乐观的态度,如果解决经济危机的根本因素呢? 的确,经济危机的根本原因是生产力过剩所致,史韦说得没错,这就是马克思说的!

在政府的十项措施里面,也能看到有改善人们生活社会保障的一些内容,同时在三农等方面也有举措,这是可喜的,虽然没有直接提到对国内制造业的明确措施,但是在政策里面首先强调了过大内需,这从根本上也是在想办法解决制造业从出口转内销面临的消费压力问题,希望这样的举措真的可以快准狠的得到实施并收到效果!

实际一些,股票操作上,个人感觉,下周操作完这个波段后,出来观望一下再说,谨慎一些操作吧!等待政府后续的一些措施跟进,再说了,无论什么措施,执行起来都不会炒个菜这么简单,要做好长期奋战的思想准备!

5 thoughts on “近期金融市场的一点想法,很初级、很浅显”

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